The iPad.
Ever since the iPhone was first announced four years ago I knew it would bring a fundamental shift in the mobile market. I bought the 3G when it first came to Canada and dutifully upgraded to the 3GS when that became available. My plan was to upgrade to the 4G/HD version coming out this year but now that I have an iPad I'm strongly reconsidering.
The main reasoning behind this is that the iPad has taken over many of the use cases that I used to use for my iPhone. Things like an easy and lightweight web browser, email, Facebook, and even a lot of the apps. After using the iPad's big, gorgeous screen why would I subject myself to my iPhone's or any phone's relatively limited real estate. Essentially - outside of a few rare use cases - all the cool apps that set the iPhone apart I'd much rather use on the iPad.
Where does the phone fit
So if that's the case then what am I still using the iPhone for? Well there are obviously some useful apps like hippo remote, and it's still very useful in a pinch when I just want to check something quickly. But for my main use outside the iPhone will just be a glorified data modem. This doesn't mean the iPhone is now useless, I'm obviously still going to keep and use mine a lot. However the justification for upgrading is no longer there. For my reduced use cases the current 3GS is more than enough.
Now my only reservation to this is that Apple has already come to the same conclusion and therefore knows and recognizes that they have to do something really special for the iPhone HD. If they can come up with something new that really compels me to upgrade then I really give them major kudos. However if it's just a higher quality screen, faster processor and better cameras I say a big meh to that. Even a front facing camera wouldn't push me over the edge.
Conclusion
Overall though, even if there are other people like me I don't think it will impact iPhone sales too much. While iPads are selling an insane amount the number of iPhone owners and potential iPhone owners totally dwarfs that number. I see the next iPhone being positioned as THE smart phone to get instead of the myriad of android phones constantly being released. But it is interesting to think about. If the iPad/Tablet market blows up could it start to have a non-insignificant impact on smart phone sales. I suppose we'll see. For now I'm just so surprised by how much the iPad has made my phone feel limited.
And Apple may not particularly care that they've lost me from the iPhone upgrade path since they've now got me on the iPad upgrade train. Those geniuses.
