Quite a lot has happened since I wrote this and this. Both Nintendo's Wii and Sony's Playstation 3 launched. The holidays happened, games and systems were sold, and lineups were made.
Last night the NPD group released their video game sales figures for January to much delight and disappointment. The numbers are as follows for those that missed them:
- Wii 435,503
- PlayStation 2 299,352
- Xbox 360 293,774
- PlayStation 3 243,554
- Nintendo DS 238,869
- PlayStation Portable 210,719
In light of these events do I feel the need to modify any of my earlier predictions? Not really. Last month I wrote about the situation of all the next-gen consoles and what they can do to gain/secure a leadership position. These sales figures confirm what I gathered the current situation to be. Wii is still doing extremely well, 360 is holding on strong, and the PS3 is floundering.
Looking at these numbers and seeing how well the Wii is doing it would be easy to make the conclusion that Nintendo is going to regain its position as the number one leader in the marketplace. However, that's not looking at the broader context of the situation. These numbers are impressive that's for sure, but we can't forget that last December's numbers were actually disappointing due to extreme shortages. In fact, even with these January numbers, Wii consoles have been remarkably difficult to find.
As long as demand is greater than supply you're going to have shortages, and right now Wii demand is significantly larger than supply. But this doesn't mean that Nintendo is on the path to long term success. There's still the very large possibility that this whole Wii thing is a fad.
Just like I said before, if Nintendo doesn't crank up the software to another level in regards to depth, then there will be no long term appeal for owning the console. There's only so many mini-games a person can play. And if you're looking for meaty traditional games, the Wii can't compare to the more powerful competition. As the generation goes on then the price consideration will be reduced dramatically, which leaves Nintendo with very little wiggle room.
All of that being said, my initial prediction of sub-Gamecube performance was totally off the mark. I'm totally willing to admit that I was horribly wrong on that one. Nintendo has done two out of the three things right, plus another thing right. The two out of the three are: solid hardware quality at an affordable price, and marketing the system extremely well. The Wii is cool, classy, and hip. The commercials with the two Japanese men driving around their funky car is absolutely perfect for the Wii and really gets the whole experience across well.
The area that's lacking is in the software. Zelda and Wii Sports were an incredible start but where do you go from there? That's a huge question mark that's hanging over Nintendo's head right now and looking at what's on the table for the rest of the year (seen below), things are looking good, but not great
- Super Smash Bros. Brawl
Disaster (Delayed to 2008)
- Donkey Kong Barrel Blast
- Animal Crossing
- Forever Blue
- Kirby
- Mario Party 8
- Mario Strikers Charged
- Metroid Prime 3: Corruption
Project H.A.M.M.E.R. (Put on hold) - Super Mario Galaxy
- Battalion Wars
Wii Health Pack (Delayed to 2008)Wii Music (Delayed to 2008)
The extra thing that Nintendo has done right is the integrated wireless with every console, alongside the Web browser. Once more people realize just how friggin cool watching streaming Internet videos *cough*fulltvshows*cough* to your TV, from the comfort of your couch, using a remote control, just like normal it will have another boost to Wii sales. Only for a limited time though, as by the end of 2007 and moving into 2008 there's going to be a lot of Internet video devices released for an affordable price.
So please Nintendo. Get some more diverse games out there. Get some meaty games that make innovative use of the Wii controller. And get online! Then you'll win. You'll win me over, and a heck of a lot of other people as well.
